Over 50 Million Cancer Deaths could have been prevented during the last four decades if the LNT model had not been used for radiation protection
How many cancer deaths could have been prevented if the LNT model were not in use and if the study of radiation hormesis had been done when there was some evidence for it?
Low-dose radiation has been observed to reduce cancers by approximately 15% in the Nuclear Shipyard Worker Study, 16% in the Taiwan apartment residents study, and 27% in the British Radiologists study. Based on such data we can assume that there would be about 20% reduction in cancers with the use of low-dose radiation.
The total number of cancer deaths worldwide annually was 10 million in 2020 and 4.3 million in 1980. Using the average of these two values, the number of cancer deaths worldwide from 1980 to 2020 would be about 0.5*(10 million +4.3 million)*41 = 293 million.
If low-dose radiation had been studied for cancer prevention when it was suggested in the 1973 study of Frigerio, et al., reduction of cancers would have been observed and the use of low-dose radiation would have been adopted in the subsequent years. The number of cancer deaths that could have been prevented from 1980 to 2020 with the use of low-dose radiation would be 20% of 293 million, i.e. 59 million.
However, low-dose radiation could not be studied for cancer prevention in clinical trials because of the use of the LNT model which raised fear of the smallest amount of radiation exposure. Thus, over 50 million cancer deaths could have been prevented over the past 4 decades if the LNT model had not been adopted by advisory bodies and used by regulatory agencies.
Current worldwide annual cancer deaths attributable to the LNT model are 20% of 10 million annual worldwide cancer deaths, i.e. 2 million per year or about 5500 per day.